Labour has been on the slide in Scotland; but not since the referendum result. They’ve been on the slide for much longer than that. In 1999 the party failed to win a majority in Holyrood and it has never done so since. Even with the popular Donald Dewar at the helm they had to do a deal to win power. Fair enough, the voting system is designed to stop a majority, but in 2011, worryingly, the Nats defied the system and did. To assess Labour’s failure is to realise that while they eroded the Tory vote and held off the Lib Dems, they failed to ever cut into the solid SNP vote that slowly grew while Labour’s slowly fell. The issue was that Labour politicians knew how to fight, beat and demonise Tories, but had utterly underestimated the SNP. It should have been a wake up call that the party couldn’t win a majority even when it enjoyed dominance in Scotland.
Fast forward to the present and the party’s leader, Jim Murphy, is fighting a desperate battle to stop the SNP winning a majority of MPs, not just of MSPs. To do so, the line of ‘vote SNP get Tory’ has been adopted, in an attempt to win anti Tory votes on a tactical basis, so that David Cameron is defeated and Labour is seen to be doing it. It could work in the short term and keep the SNP surge down, but in the long run, Murphy needs to move the rhetoric away from ‘no more Tories’ to attacks on the SNP that cut deeper than before. He also needs to keep the respect of unionist Labour voters who want the party to be proudly pro-UK, not embarrassed about it. Jim Murphy was the man for the job during the referendum and he has to be again. The long term tactics must include very little of the traditional Tory bashing or offering more devolution when things get tough. They should be about why the SNP are unfit to govern, why Labour is and how the party will use its influence if it formed a government.
On this note, Murphy should rediscover his Blairite instincts on areas like education and health. While the 1000 nurses’ pledge looks good and is a decent short term tactic, real reform is needed in the NHS. Labour should attack Sturgeon for not providing it and then pitch solutions. On education, the party needs to follow UKIP and the Tories down the road of ending mediocre post code lottery style schools, and put its own stamp on the project while it’s at it. This would enable yet another attack on the SNP and the status quo. On issues right across the parliament, Labour needs to be radical, positive and reforming as opposed to presenting anti-Tory rhetoric and short term vote winning gimmicks. The slogans will win 2015, the substance can win 2016. Murphy can extend his ‘fairest nation on earth’ rhetoric into detailed policy on how it would be achieved. Getting in another 1000 nurses thanks to the mansion (predominantly English funded) tax, is not the way to do that. The party should wean off the idea that more money and devolution will solve Holyrood’s problems (in the same way the Nats think independence will) and instead question the Barnett formula, back tax raising powers and complete NHS reform without using class/nationality grievance to do so.
In 2015 the election will be scrappy, uninspiring and bitter. If Labour can survive it, then it must fly full pelt into 2016. If it does not focus on the long term it will be outflanked on reform by the Tories and UKIP and will fail to convince SNP voters that the party has changed and that it has vision and plan for governance.
The task facing Murphy is huge. He has to put right all the mistakes of years past and try and fend off the Nats without pandering to them. He has to be a reformer and a radical, as much as he needs to be stoic in his defence of principles like the union. If he and his party pursue the tactics of the past they will fail and decline yet further. If they bring about proper, log term change, they stand a fighting chance.
Fast forward to the present and the party’s leader, Jim Murphy, is fighting a desperate battle to stop the SNP winning a majority of MPs, not just of MSPs. To do so, the line of ‘vote SNP get Tory’ has been adopted, in an attempt to win anti Tory votes on a tactical basis, so that David Cameron is defeated and Labour is seen to be doing it. It could work in the short term and keep the SNP surge down, but in the long run, Murphy needs to move the rhetoric away from ‘no more Tories’ to attacks on the SNP that cut deeper than before. He also needs to keep the respect of unionist Labour voters who want the party to be proudly pro-UK, not embarrassed about it. Jim Murphy was the man for the job during the referendum and he has to be again. The long term tactics must include very little of the traditional Tory bashing or offering more devolution when things get tough. They should be about why the SNP are unfit to govern, why Labour is and how the party will use its influence if it formed a government.
On this note, Murphy should rediscover his Blairite instincts on areas like education and health. While the 1000 nurses’ pledge looks good and is a decent short term tactic, real reform is needed in the NHS. Labour should attack Sturgeon for not providing it and then pitch solutions. On education, the party needs to follow UKIP and the Tories down the road of ending mediocre post code lottery style schools, and put its own stamp on the project while it’s at it. This would enable yet another attack on the SNP and the status quo. On issues right across the parliament, Labour needs to be radical, positive and reforming as opposed to presenting anti-Tory rhetoric and short term vote winning gimmicks. The slogans will win 2015, the substance can win 2016. Murphy can extend his ‘fairest nation on earth’ rhetoric into detailed policy on how it would be achieved. Getting in another 1000 nurses thanks to the mansion (predominantly English funded) tax, is not the way to do that. The party should wean off the idea that more money and devolution will solve Holyrood’s problems (in the same way the Nats think independence will) and instead question the Barnett formula, back tax raising powers and complete NHS reform without using class/nationality grievance to do so.
In 2015 the election will be scrappy, uninspiring and bitter. If Labour can survive it, then it must fly full pelt into 2016. If it does not focus on the long term it will be outflanked on reform by the Tories and UKIP and will fail to convince SNP voters that the party has changed and that it has vision and plan for governance.
The task facing Murphy is huge. He has to put right all the mistakes of years past and try and fend off the Nats without pandering to them. He has to be a reformer and a radical, as much as he needs to be stoic in his defence of principles like the union. If he and his party pursue the tactics of the past they will fail and decline yet further. If they bring about proper, log term change, they stand a fighting chance.