Analysed:
~the possible outcomes of GE2015 and the effects on the union
~which outcomes are best/worst for the unionist cause
~our prediction with 38 days to go
In the recent Israeli elections, President Netanyahu managed a narrow win. That sounds like, he got a small majority of, say, twenty seats. In actual fact he won just 30 of the 120 seats up for grabs. Yet to look at the celebrations of party members you would not know it. The reason it counts as a win, is that he can now rely on support from friendly parties to carry him over the line on votes.
At present, no UK party looks set to win outright, and that probably won't change. The situation could end up similar (although not quite like the numbers) to the Israel result. This throws up a few possible outcomes, not all of them bad for the union, but some most certainly to be avoided.
The nightmare scenario is a Labour minority, with the Lib Dems either unable or unwilling to do a deal and therefore leaving the way open to the ominous Plaid/SNP/Green trio do deals and win concessions. Ed Milliband would be celebrating becoming PM because of friendly groups of left wing nationalist MPs as well as his own block. The chaos that would ensue does not bear thinking about.
Of course, a Labour minority would be fine, as long as it either did a coalition deal with the Lib Dems or had a confidence pact. That would lead to moderate rule from the centre left and crucially no nationalists holding the balance of power. For the union, such a deal would be, overall beneficial, although the two parties may go overboard on devolving power and leave the Barnett formula unaddressed. Despite this, such a deal would bode well for the future of the union.
In terms of a Tory minority, the worst case scenario is that no party does a deal. That would leave the Conservatives exposed, despite having the highest number of seats. Parliamentary anarchy would follow, with no party/ies able to assert proper governance. No doubt a second election would soon follow. In a vote of no confidence, the carve up would be uncertain too.
A Tory deal with the DUP & UKIP alliance, however is a very tempting prospect, purely because of the passionate commitment to unionism from each party and the combined effect it would have. There would be an EU referendum and decent work done towards a more balanced constitutional settlement and the devolution of powers. However, the nature of the deal would lead to the SNP seeing it as a declaration of war. Labour would respond negatively, and there would be an enflaming of the debate on Scotland's place in the UK. The 'we never get who we vote for' line would be hammered home too. If it did arise, this scenario would be hit and miss, but intrinsically unionist, even if it had serious flaws in other areas.
A repeat of the current coalition would be no bad thing. This government won the referendum and has presided over a stable period of recovery in the economy although all agree much still needs to be done. With the Tories anchored to the Lib Dems, the style of governance has been moderate and with a good deal of compromise. However such a deal would finish the Liberals off for good, their image tarred yet further by the Tories. Once again, Cameron in no.10 would allow the Nats to gripe away about our supposed lack of influence. But that may be worth the risk.
On the whole, the election is on a knife-edge. But that need not be a negative for the union, so long as the deals brokered are done by forces sympathetic to the unionist cause. On that note, we have compiled a list of possible outcomes in and assessed their benefit/damage to the union.
A Labour/SNP confidence pact.
2/10. The SNP would pull strings and force the agenda constantly. England would grow frustrated and devolution would spill out of control. Economic damage would occur almost certainly too. The only upside would be that the union would have delivered a Govt, resoundingly voted for by Scotland, and therefore neuter the argument of 'we don't get who we vote for'. But that would be little comfort.
A Conservative Minority with no deal.
3/10. As discussed earlier, this would be unstable and short lived, with awful consequences for the union as the Nats run riot and the UK loses its precious stability. Labour would also end up politicking and possibly aiding the SNP with their rhetoric on issues. As they did in the referendum in the NHS. The minority would lose key votes and allow Salmond to gloat and goad at English voters. It would also end quickly and another tense election would follow.
A Labour Minority with no deal.
3/10. Despite being able to stay afloat longer, it would be under attack from all sides. UKIP, SNP and Tory MPs would all be out for blood. The SNP would be both supportive and destructive in equal measure, leading to the situation where Salmond 'calls the tune' as Labour fight to stay above water, amid pressure from UKIP/Tory MPs hostility. It would collapse badly at some point and the Nats would score big point from all of this.
A Labour/SNP/Plaid/Green confidence pact.
4/10. It would at least include parties from England and Wales, therefore focusing on the UK, but both have separation agendas and wild spending plans. The economy would crash, and Labour's credibility would be shot to bits. On the bright side, the nationalists for all their oily tricks, would fail to extract themselves from the wreckage without a damaged reputation. It could lead to a growth in support for stable unionist rule. But there would be pain.
A Conservative/SNP confidence pact.
5/10. Not out of the question. The Nats may cave on their pledge if they get a whiff of power and deal brokering. Imagine it, Clegg and Farage both battling for deals and the SNP sitting on their hands. No way. The trouble is, they may well get big deals, in return for not voting against a Queen's speech, any such power shifts would irk voters in the rest of the UK and potentially detract from the credibility of the administration.. The instability of a minority Govt is also unappealing as always.
A Conservative/UKIP/DUP/UUP confidence pact.
6/10. The raw unionist appeal of this pact is offset by the polarised political atmosphere it would create at a time when it is least needed. Despite this, such deals would be made with the UK at their heart and there would be no tolerance of the Nats. An EU referendum would occur, with the associated positives and negatives. On the whole though, such a deal would be great on paper but polarising in practise, leaving many Labour voting unionists very unhappy.
A Labour/Liberal confidence pact.
6/10. If it were only a pact, this potentially good partnership would be limited in its capabilities. The two would keep each other in check and while there would be no EU referendum, a mistake in this blog's view, the two would govern quite well from the centre left and crucially leave the Nats out in the cold. Though the deal would still have room for upsets and potential instability, particularly if Labour start to lurch leftwards, irking Clegg.
A Conservative/Liberal confidence pact.
6/10. The current work of the coalition would be resumed and there would be nearly no scope for Nationalist influence, particularly because of their fear of being seen to work with the Tories. Such a deal would maybe be long in the tooth though, with more infighting and less direction. Overall though it would block out the Nats very effectively, And govern quite successfully too.
A Labour/Liberal coalition deal.
7/10. As with the confidence deal, this would be a moderate centre left force, but with much more clout, because it would be a proper administration. The presence of Clegg's Lib Dems may be unpopular but in government they have proved they can work well. With Labour, one imagines they would be no different.
A Conservative/Liberal coalition deal.
8/10. The coalition of the last five years has been a success. Both parties have complimented each other and have managed to rule effectively. In terms of the union, they presided over the referendum victory and both parties are reliable in their support of the UK. If the coalition of the moment was to move forward for another five years, it would be the strongest option on offer for the unionist movement, continuing economic growth and stable government and keeping the new Nat block at bay.
Our prediction: with 38 days to go
Conservative 288
Labour 280
Lib Dems 21
UKIP 8
SNP 27
Plaid Cymru 6
Green 1
Respect 1
DUP 8
Sinn Fein 5
SDLP 3
UUP 1
Alliance 1
~OUTCOME 1: A minority Conservative administration with confidence and supply from Lib Dems, UKIP, DUP and UUP MPs on crucial votes.
~OUTCOME 2: A Lab/Lib (minority) coalition with confidence and supply from SNP/Plaid/Green MPs.